 Apr-18, The World Bank 

Growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) is projected to strengthen to 4.5 percent in 2018, as activity in commodity exporters continues to recover amid firming prices. However, geopolitical tension, increased protectionism, and an abrupt tightening of global financial conditions pose downside risks.

A structural slowdown in China is offsetting a modest cyclical pickup in the rest of the East Asia region. Risks to the outlook have become more balanced, and stronger-than-expected growth among advanced economies could lead to faster growth in the region.

China investment growth

Image: The World Bank

In Latin America policy uncertainty, natural disasters, US trade protectionism and deterioration of domestic fiscal conditions could throw off growth, which is expected to hit 2 percent in 2018 in Brazil, and 2.1 percent in Mexico.

The Middle East & North Africa region is expected to achieve 3 percent economic growth in 2018, with reforms across the region gaining momentum, fiscal constraints easing and tourism improving.

EMDE potential growth under reform scenarios

Image: The World Bank

South Asia looks to be the fastest-growing region in 2018, at 6.9 percent, led by India at 7.3 percent, as consumption stays strong and investment is on track to revive thanks to policy reforms and infrastructure upgrades.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa is forecast to tick up to 1.1 percent growth in 2018, and Nigeria to accelerate to 2.5 percent, but growth in the region does depend on firming commodity prices and implementation of reforms.

Export growth by region

Image: The World Bank

Growth in Eastern Europe & Central Asia is expected to continue to slow in the west of the region, due to moderating EU economies, counterbalanced by a gradual recovery in the east, thanks to commodity exports. However Turkey will expand only 3.5 percent in 2018, down from 6.7 percent in 2017.

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