Jul-18, The World Bank 

Growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) commodity importers is expected to remain robust, while the rebound in commodity exporters is projected to mature. Risks include disorderly financial market movements, escalating trade protectionism, policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions.

Growth in East Asia is forecast to ease from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 6.1 in 2019, reflecting a slowdown in China that is partly offset by a pickup in the rest of the region. Indonesia’s economy is expected to grow at 5.2 percent in 2018, and Thailand's at 4.1 percent.

China balance of payments

China balance of payments (c)World Bank 1807

Image: The World Bank

In Latin America growth is projected to accelerate to 1.7 percent in 2018 and to 2.3 percent in 2019, spurred by private consumption and investment. The cyclical recovery underway in Brazil is projected to continue, and investment in Mexico should pick up.

Latin America investment

Latam investment growth (c)World Bank 1807 

Image: The World Bank

The Middle East & North Africa region's economies are expected to grow 3 percent in 2018, as oil exporters recover. Oil importing economies will see even stronger growth as business and consumer confidence gets a lift from reforms and improving external demand.

Oil importers' industrial production

MENA oil importers industrial growth (c)World Bank 1807

Image: The World Bank

As factors holding back growth in India fade, growth in South Asia is projected to strengthen to 6.9 percent in 2018. Robust private consumption and strengthening investment in India will drive the region.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to strengthen to 3.1 percent in 2018, below its long-term average, held back partly by lack of investment in Nigeria. A pickup in business and consumer confidence in South Africa will support stronger growth in investment and consumption.

Sub-Saharan Africa investment

Sub Saharan Africa investment (c)World Bank 1807

Image: The World Bank

In Eastern Europe & Central Asia a modest recovery among commodity exporting economies will only partially be offset by a slowdown among commodity importers. Growth in Russia is expected to hold steady at 1.5 percent in 2018 as the effects of rising oil prices and monetary policy easing are offset by oil production cuts and economic sanctions. 

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